Introduction and Caveat
I don't work in the auto industry, and this is not an insider’s report on what’s ahead in the next few years. It’s what I’ve been able to glean from research that I’ve done on the web, combined with what I know of the science and engineering involved. My particular interest in compiling this report was to understand more of the nature and future needs of the automotive microcontroller market. Hopefully, though, the report will be useful to others who want to understand future automotive technology and the prospects for cleaner, more efficient vehicles.
The trend for automotive power electronics and controllers is strongly upward. That should surprise no one. What may surprise some, however, is the speed of that trend as a result of a rapid shift toward hybrid and electric drive systems. There is reason to believe that that shift may be occurring more quickly than most automotive companies had previously thought. Toyota and Honda have established early leadership, and their unexpected success is causing other companies to reassess their own plans.
The Conservative Roadmap
There is a conservative automotive roadmap that projects increasing use of microcontrollers and power electronics. Electrically operated servos for power steering and braking will replace hydraulics, giving better efficiency, better integration with traction control and anti-lock braking systems, and lower cost. The belt-driven cooling pump will be replaced by one or more electrically driven pumps, to enable finer control of engine temperature for improved mileage and lower emissions. Power for these and other sub-systems will come from an integrated starter-alternator (SA), and will be delivered through a 42-volt electrical system.
The integrated starter-alternator should be somewhat lighter than the combination of separate starting motor and belt-driven alternator that it replaces, but it will be substantially more powerful in either mode. It will enable an engine to be stopped when the vehicle is stopped, and instantly restarted when power is needed. By one government estimate, idling engines account for 11% of gasoline consumption, so this "engine off" capability alone will have an important effect on fuel economy.
The conservative roadmap does not anticipate a rapid shift toward all-electric drive trains, of the type required by battery or fuel cell electric vehicles. Most automotive companies believe that gasoline-fueled IC engines will remain the overwhelmingly dominant automotive power source for at least the next two decades. Electric and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are expected to remain niche markets for years to come. Although all major auto companies have research projects in FCVs that they like to publicize, nonetheless there appears to be a tendency among auto engineers to view the "hydrogen economy" as a pipe dream of environmental activists who can’t do arithmetic.
The latter view is perhaps too harsh. If cheap, reliable fuel cells can be developed—and that now appears likely—then hydrogen may simply offer the cleanest and most economical means to tap domestic coal reserves and nuclear energy for transportation use. There are certainly a number of hard-nosed engineers and business executives betting that way. In any case, arguments for electric drive trains exist, even when the power is supplied by an alternator from an IC engine. In the long run, electric drive trains may simply perform better and be cheaper to manufacture than present mechanical counterparts. If that is so, the issue becomes how and when the changeover is likely to happen. Specific predictions are always risky, but I personally expect to see the transition well started within four years.